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2004 NFL Top Rushing Offense Projections

StingRay - August 8, 2004


Hello Freaks! We are a week away from the first preseason game and if you're a Freak like me you can't wait.  I have been locked in the basement crunching numbers and trying to determine the number one rushing unit in football.

I looked at all 32 teams and reviewed the off-season changes in the offensive line. Then I looked at their schedule to determine how many games they face against top 15 run defenses from 2003.  Based on that I came up with a formula to decipher who had the easiest and most difficult schedules.  Here's the formula: Each game against a top 5 rush defense earned 6 points.  A game against a defensive team that was rated 6-10 earned 5 points, and against teams 11-15 earned 4 points.   The team with the highest number of total points was rated with the worst schedule when it comes to the running game.   (Conversely the team with the least amount of points has the easiest schedule.)

I used my schedule ranking, the off-season offensive line movement and general football expertise to come up with my rankings of which teams will have a solid ground game.  These rankings will be useful on draft day when you have a tough decision between two players or when you are taking flyers on backs late in your draft.  Happy Reading!


Rank

Team

2003 Rush YPG Rank

2003 Rush YPG

2003 Rushing TDs

1  Green Bay Packers  3 159.9 18

The Packers line will return all starters and continue to dominate in the running game. What make this unit the best in the game is that even if Ahman Green were out, Najeh Davenport and Tony Fisher can fill in and keep the running game going.

Offensive Linemen Signed or Re-signed

Offensive Linemen Lost

# of Games Against Top 15 Defenses

Opponents ranked in the Top 15 Against the Rush in 2003

OT Chad Clifton (re-signed)

OT Kevin Barry (re-signed)

None  6 11, 1, 15, 3, 15, 2

 


Rank

Team

2003 Rush YPG Rank

2003 Rush YPG

2003 Rushing TDs

2  Philadelphia Eagles 9 125.9 23

The Eagles' line has been dominant over the past two seasons and now that they added Terrell Owens on the outside their running game will be even more improved. Eagles opponents never worried about the duo of Pinkston and Thrash so they were able to sneak a safety up to support the run.  Not this year.

Offensive Linemen Signed or Re-signed

Offensive Linemen Lost

# of Games Against Top 15 Defenses

Opponents ranked in the Top 15 Against the Rush in 2003

OL Shaun Andrews (16th pick overall)

OG Bobbie Williams (Bengals)

OG John Welbourn (Chiefs) 

 6 15, 11, 6, 3, 10, 3 

 


Rank

Team

2003 Rush YPG Rank

2003 Rush YPG

2003 Rushing TDs

3  Kansas City Chiefs  115 120.6 32

The Chiefs' line is one of the best units in the league because they have played together for years. After losing John Tait to the Bears in free agency they traded with the Eagles for disgruntled lineman John Welbourne who might actually be an improvement over Tait according to the Chiefs. The Chiefs were 15th in rushing yards per game but no team was even close when you looked at the rushing touchdowns provided by this offensive line. They are not rated number one because what other back can run the football outside of Holmes and they do not have an easy schedule.

Offensive Linemen Signed or Re-signed

Offensive Linemen Lost

# of Games Against Top 15 Defenses

Opponents ranked in the Top 15 Against the Rush in 2003

OL Chris Bober (Giants) 
OG John Welbourn
(Eagles)

OT John Tait (Bears)    8  7, 11, 6, 2, 13, 4, 1, 7

 


Rank

Team

2003 Rush YPG Rank

2003 Rush YPG

2003 Rushing TDs

4  Baltimore Ravens  1 166.8 18

The Ravens' offensive line is one of the best and they were able to resign their players, which is great news for anyone who drafts a Ravens running back. If Jamal Lewis doesn't miss any time this season he could lead the league in rushing again.

Offensive Linemen Signed or Re-signed

Offensive Linemen Lost

# of Games Against Top 15 Defenses

Opponents ranked in the Top 15 Against the Rush in 2003

C Mike Flynn (re-signed)

OT Orlando Brown (re-signed)

OL Damion Cook (re-signed)

None  6 12, 8, 3, 4, 12, 5

 


Rank

Team

2003 Rush YPG Rank

2003 Rush YPG

2003 Rushing TDs

5  Jacksonville Jaguars  8 129.6 13

The Jaguars made two nice additions with the signings of Mike Compton and Ephraim Salaam who were both starters for two playoff teams last season. The Jaguars are a team on the rise and the running game will continue to be the cornerstone of this offense.  The Jaguars also signed Greg Jones who' will be a nice compliment to Fred Taylor.

Offensive Linemen Signed or Re-signed

Offensive Linemen Lost

# of Games Against Top 15 Defenses

Opponents ranked in the Top 15 Against the Rush in 2003

OL Mike Compton (Patriots) 

OL Ephraim Salaam (Broncos) 

OL Leander Jordan (Chargers)

Ol Jamar Nesbit (Saints)

 8, 7, 1, 15, 1, 10

 


Rank

Team

2003 Rush YPG Rank

2003 Rush YPG

2003 Rushing TDs

6  Denver Broncos 2 164.3 20

The Broncos will try a number of backs to replace Portis but their biggest loss may be the loss of long time offensive line coach Alex Gibbs (who built the Broncos offensive line).  Gibbs is considered one of the best line coaches if not the best and he is now in Atlanta. Salaam was the Broncos starting left tackle last season and he will be missed too. He was cut so the Broncos wouldn't have to pay a $5 million roster bonus to him.

Offensive Linemen Signed or Re-signed

Offensive Linemen Lost

# of Games Against Top 15 Defenses

Opponents ranked in the Top 15 Against the Rush in 2003

Signed OT Cornell Green (Tampa Bay) 

OG Steve Herndon (Jaguars)

OL Ephraim Salaam (Broncos)

2, 13, 11, 5

 


Rank

Team

2003 Rush YPG Rank

2003 Rush YPG

2003 Rushing TDs

7  Minnesota Vikings 4 146.4 15

The Vikings run offense is good but you have to take into consideration that their yards per game is high due to the running ability of their quarterback. Daunte Culpepper rushed for 422 yards in the 14 games he played. Regardless if it's Michael Bennett, Moe Williams, or Onterio Smith this line will pave holes for all three.

Offensive Linemen Signed or Re-signed

Offensive Linemen Lost

# of Games Against Top 15 Defenses

Opponents ranked in the Top 15 Against the Rush in 2003

OL Lewis Kelly (re-signed)

None

3, 1, 10, 15, 2, 15, 10

 


Rank

Team

2003 Rush YPG Rank

2003 Rush YPG

2003 Rushing TDs

8  Atlanta Falcons 14 121.8 17

Atlanta re-signed key players and added a couple of lineman. The best move was hiring offensive line coach Alex Gibbs from Denver. He will have this line playing much better in 2004. The additions of Gibbs, along with a healthy Mike Vick and Warrick Dunn, makes this line one of the most improved coming into the season.

Offensive Linemen Signed or Re-signed

Offensive Linemen Lost

# of Games Against Top 15 Defenses

Opponents ranked in the Top 15 Against the Rush in 2003

C Todd McClure (re-signed)
OG Steve Herndon
(Broncos)
OL Eric Beverly
(Lions)

OL Roberto Garza (re-signed) 
OG Kynan Forney
(re-signed) 

OG Travis Claridge (Panthers)

9, 11, 15, 7, 13, 13, 11, 14

 


Rank

Team

2003 Rush YPG Rank

2003 Rush YPG

2003 Rushing TDs

9  Seattle Seahawks 10 125.6 17

Every year Walter Jones holds out and every year the Seahawks franchise him then make him a one-year offer worth $6 million. If he doesn't sign the Seahawks' offense line would be in big trouble.

Offensive Linemen Signed or Re-signed

Offensive Linemen Lost

# of Games Against Top 15 Defenses

Opponents ranked in the Top 15 Against the Rush in 2003

OT Walter Jones (franchise)

None

13, 9, 4, 10, 9, 5, 8, 3

 


Rank

Team

2003 Rush YPG Rank

2003 Rush YPG

2003 Rushing TDs

10  Dallas Cowboys 12 124.9 11

The Cowboys run the football plenty and Pro Bowl lineman Larry Allen has come into camp in good health and seems to finally be on board with coach Bill Parcells.  A healthy Allen, a great blocking receiver in Keyshawn Johnson, and an upgrade at running back (Julius Jones) has the Cowboys' rushing unit looking pretty good coming into this season. The addition of Eddie George also gives them depth at the running back position.

Offensive Linemen Signed or Re-signed

Offensive Linemen Lost

# of Games Against Top 15 Defenses

Opponents ranked in the Top 15 Against the Rush in 2003

None

OL Ryan Young (released) 

10, 15, 6, 14

 


Rank

Team

2003 Rush YPG Rank

2003 Rush YPG

2003 Rushing TDs

11  New Orleans Saints 11 125 11

The Saints' line remains intact so Deuce McAllister should be in for another solid season.  Word out of New Orleans is that wide receiver Donte Stallworth is rededicated and working extremely hard to be in tip top shape this year.  A productive Stallworth opposite Joe Horn can only help the running game.

Offensive Linemen Signed or Re-signed

Offensive Linemen Lost

# of Games Against Top 15 Defenses

Opponents ranked in the Top 15 Against the Rush in 2003

OL Spencer Folau (re-signed)

OL Jamar Nesbit (Jaguars) 

C Jerry Fontenot (re-signed)

None 

14, 9, 13, 7, 11, 3, 13

 


Rank

Team

2003 Rush YPG Rank

2003 Rush YPG

2003 Rushing TDs

12  New England Patriots 27 100.4 9

The Patriots lost 14 game starter Damien Woody to the Lions but this is a very underrated unit. We all saw them hold the Panther star studded defensive line to no sacks in the Super Bowl.  Antowain Smith and Kevin Faulk combined for 125 yards on the ground in that game too.  Neither of those guys are Corey Dillon, who prior to last year averaged 1,300 yards per season. This team will get it done on the ground now that they have a legitimate running back.

Offensive Linemen Signed or Re-signed

Offensive Linemen Lost

# of Games Against Top 15 Defenses

Opponents ranked in the Top 15 Against the Rush in 2003

OG Russ Hochstein (re-signed) 

OL Bob Hallen (Chargers)

OL Damien Woody (Lions) 
OL Mike Compton
(Jaguars)

8, 5, 14, 8, 6, 5, 9

 


Rank

Team

2003 Rush YPG Rank

2003 Rush YPG

2003 Rushing TDs

13  Washington Redskins 22 103.3 8

Washington's line got better the minute Joe Gibbs was hired. It got a little better once Joe Bugel was named the offensive line coach. Then the signing of Clinton Portis made this offensive line a legitimate unit that could be one of the leagues' best in 2004.

Offensive Linemen Signed or Re-signed

Offensive Linemen Lost

# of Games Against Top 15 Defenses

Opponents ranked in the Top 15 Against the Rush in 2003

OL Lennie Friedman (re-signed) 

C Cory Raymer (Chargers)

OL Larry Moore (Bengals) 

OG Dave Fiore (released)

13, 3, 6, 10, 15, 12, 9, 3

 


Rank

Team

2003 Rush YPG Rank

2003 Rush YPG

2003 Rushing TDs

14  Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 103 5

This is the offensive line to watch this season. Tampa Bay has made major moves to improve the offensive line even though Matt O'Dwyer, a projected starter, may be lost for the season.  Charlie Garner knows how to produce in this system and a healthy Mike Alstott will help too. The best thing this unit has going for it is that they have an extremely easy schedule.

Offensive Linemen Signed or Re-signed

Offensive Linemen Lost

# of Games Against Top 15 Defenses

Opponents ranked in the Top 15 Against the Rush in 2003

OL Derrick Deese (49ers)
OL Matt O'Dwyer
(Bengals)
OL Todd Steussie
(Panthers)
OG Cosey Coleman
(re-signed)

OT Chris Ziemann (released)

14, 7, 9, 11, 11, 17

 


Rank

Team

2003 Rush YPG Rank

2003 Rush YPG

2003 Rushing TDs

15  Carolina Panthers 7 130.9 9

The Panthers have lost four lineman and second year lineman Jordon Gross, a projected starter, is injured and will miss the first six games of the season. There is cause for concern with this offensive line coming into the 2004 season.

Offensive Linemen Signed or Re-signed

Offensive Linemen Lost

# of Games Against Top 15 Defenses

Opponents ranked in the Top 15 Against the Rush in 2003

OG Tutan Reyes (re-signed)
OL Adam Meadows
(Colts) 
OL Melvin Tuten
(re-signed) 
OG Travis Claridge
(Falcons) 

OG Jeno James (Dolphins)
OT Todd Steussie
(Bucs) 
OL Kevin Donnalley
(retired)

RT Adam Meadows (retired)

10, 7, 9, 13, 13

 


Rank

Team

2003 Rush YPG Rank

2003 Rush YPG

2003 Rushing TDs

16  San Diego Chargers 6 134.1 16

The Chargers lost eight offensive lineman, have a rookie quarterback in Philip Rivers, and, due to the departure of David Boston, have no receivers for opponents to be concerned about. Teams should be and will be keying on Tomlinson since he is the only threat on offense.

Offensive Linemen Signed or Re-signed

Offensive Linemen Lost

# of Games Against Top 15 Defenses

Opponents ranked in the Top 15 Against the Rush in 2003

OL Leander Jordan (Jaguars)
OL Mike Golf
(Bengals)

OLRoman Oben (Bucs)

 

C Cory Raymer (Redskins)
OT Vaughn Parker
(released)
OG Michael Keathley
(Bears) 
OG David Brandt
(released)
OT Damion McIntosh
(Dolphins) 
OG Kelvin Garmon
(Browns) 
OT Ed Ellis
(Giants)
OL Bob Hallen
(Patriots)

7, 1, 2, 11, 7, 13

 


Rank

Team

2003 Rush YPG Rank

2003 Rush YPG

2003 Rushing TDs

17  Houston Texans 23 103.2 14

The Texans have changed their run blocking schemes this season to utilize Domanick Davis even more this year. This entire offense will be better this season.

Offensive Linemen Signed or Re-signed

Offensive Linemen Lost

# of Games Against Top 15 Defenses

Opponents ranked in the Top 15 Against the Rush in 2003

OT Todd Wade (Dolphins) 

 

OL Greg Randall (49ers)

15, 1, 2, 7, 10, 1, 2

 


Rank

Team

2003 Rush YPG Rank

2003 Rush YPG

2003 Rushing TDs

18  New York Giants 28 97.4 6

The Giants addressed their line through free agency and I'm sure Tom Coughlin will have this team a little more disciplined then it was last year under Jim Fassel. The Giants have the 5th easiest schedule which means Tiki Barber could be a nice sleeper this season if he can hold on to the football and stay out of Coughlin's doghouse.

Offensive Linemen Signed or Re-signed

Offensive Linemen Lost

# of Games Against Top 15 Defenses

Opponents ranked in the Top 15 Against the Rush in 2003

OL Shaun O'Hara (Browns)
OL Barry Stokes
(Browns) 
OT Ed Ellis
(Chargers)
OL Mathias Nkwenti
(Steelers) 

OL Jeff Hatch (released)
OL Jeff Roehl
(Seahawks)

10, 3, 6, 12, 3

 


Rank

Team

2003 Rush YPG Rank

2003 Rush YPG

2003 Rushing TDs

19  Tennessee Titans 26 101.4 11

The Titans' line suffered no major losses and they have a relatively easy schedule.  Eddie George's days are over in Tennessee which is a good thing since George's yards per carry kept decreasing each and every year. Chris Brown could be a very productive back in this system if he is the starting tailback for the Titans.

Offensive Linemen Signed or Re-signed

Offensive Linemen Lost

# of Games Against Top 15 Defenses

Opponents ranked in the Top 15 Against the Rush in 2003

None 

OL Tom Ackerman (released)

5, 2, 10, 2, 7

 


Rank

Team

2003 Rush YPG Rank

2003 Rush YPG

2003 Rushing TDs

20  Detroit Lions 32 83.6 5

The Detroit Lions were dead last in rushing offense in 2003 but they will make a significant improvement this season. Here are my reasons. Detroit has a very easy schedule, drafted RB Kevin Jones, and their passing attack should be lethal with Charles Rogers, Roy Williams, Tai Streets, and Az- Zahir Hakim. All of the above will improve the running game significantly.

Offensive Linemen Signed or Re-signed

Offensive Linemen Lost

# of Games Against Top 15 Defenses

Opponents ranked in the Top 15 Against the Rush in 2003

OL Damien Woody (Patriots)
OG David Loverne
(Rams)

OL Eric Beverly (Falcons)

10, 3, 2, 10, 1

 


Rank

Team

2003 Rush YPG Rank

2003 Rush YPG

2003 Rushing TDs

21  Indianapolis Colts 19 105.9 16

The Colts' offensive line will be severely tested by their schedule but because their passing game is so potent their running game will be okay.

Offensive Linemen Signed or Re-signed

Offensive Linemen Lost

# of Games Against Top 15 Defenses

Opponents ranked in the Top 15 Against the Rush in 2003

OL Tupe Peko (re-signed)
OG Rick DeMulling
(re-signed)
OT Ryan Diem
(re-signed) 

OL Adam Meadows (Panthers)

4, 1, 10, 2, 2, 15, 1, 6, 7

 


Rank

Team

2003 Rush YPG Rank

2003 Rush YPG

2003 Rushing TDs

22  Oakland Raiders 16 113.9 15

The Raiders addressed the offensive line through the draft by acquiring Robert Gallery and they brought in veteran guard, and ex-49er, Ron Stone but who is going to run the football?  Norv Turner has always utilized the running game so the Raiders will try to run, but right now I'm not sold on any of the horses that are currently in the stable. One thing is for certain, Troy Hambrick is not the answer for the silver and black.

Offensive Linemen Signed or Re-signed

Offensive Linemen Lost

# of Games Against Top 15 Defenses

Opponents ranked in the Top 15 Against the Rush in 2003

OG Ron Stone (49ers)
OG Brad Badger
(re-signed)
OT Robert Gallery
(2nd round draft pick)

OL Matt Stinchcomb (Bucs) 
C Barrett Robbins
(Released) 

12, 8, 13, 7,11, 7, 1, 2

 


Rank

Team

2003 Rush YPG Rank

2003 Rush YPG

2003 Rushing TDs

23  Buffalo Bills 21 104 13

The Bills want to run the football more this year with Henry and McGahee but I don't think their schedule will allow them to have too much success on the ground. Not only do they have four games against the Patriots and Dolphins, but their out of division games have them facing the Ravens and the Jaguars, who were both stingy against the run last season.

Offensive Linemen Signed or Re-signed

Offensive Linemen Lost

# of Games Against Top 15 Defenses

Opponents ranked in the Top 15 Against the Rush in 2003

OG Chris Villarrial (Bears)
OG Ross Tucker
(re-signed) 
OG Marques Sullivan
(re-signed) 

OG Ruben Brown (Bears) 

2, 4, 5, 6, 4, 14, 5, 9

 


Rank

Team

2003 Rush YPG Rank

2003 Rush YPG

2003 Rushing TDs

24  Chicago Bears 18 110.2 13

I like what the Bears have done on the offensive line with the additions of Tait and Brown. They should be a stronger more physical unit but their schedule is difficult. They have the 5th hardest schedule against the top rushing defenses in the league.

Offensive Linemen Signed or Re-signed

Offensive Linemen Lost

# of Games Against Top 15 Defenses

Opponents ranked in the Top 15 Against the Rush in 2003

OT John Tait (Chiefs)
OG Michael Keathley
(Chargers)
OG Ruben Brown
(Bills) 

OG Chris Villarrial (Bills) 

15, 10, 13, 9, 1, 3, 2, 15, 10

 


Rank

Team

2003 Rush YPG Rank

2003 Rush YPG

2003 Rushing TDs

25  San Francisco 49ers 5 142.4 16

Greg Randall will start at right guard to replace Ron Stone who was released and Scott Rehberg is a veteran that has played every position on the line except center.  The 49ers will have a difficult time running the football with the inexperience at quarterback and the loss of Terrell Owens, Tai Streets, and Garrison Hearst.  Defenses will focus on stopping Barlow since the 49ers are very thin at the wide receiver position.

Offensive Linemen Signed or Re-signed

Offensive Linemen Lost

# of Games Against Top 15 Defenses

Opponents ranked in the Top 15 Against the Rush in 2003

C Brock Gutierrez (re-signed)
Scott Rehberg
(Bengals) 
Signed Greg Randall
(Texans) 

OT Derrick Deese (released)

11, 13, 5, 8, 4

 


Rank

Team

2003 Rush YPG Rank

2003 Rush YPG

2003 Rushing TDs

26  Miami Dolphins 17 113.6 14

The Dolphins are only returning one starter on the offensive line and that is last year's rookie Wade Smith who suffered a sprained MCL in min-camp but is expected to start the season opener. The addition of Boston should help the passing game but the running game will be in trouble now that Ricky Williams has retired.

Offensive Linemen Signed or Re-signed

Offensive Linemen Lost

# of Games Against Top 15 Defenses

Opponents ranked in the Top 15 Against the Rush in 2003

OT John St. Clair (Rams)
OT Damion McIntosh
(Chargers)

C Tim Ruddy (released)
G Todd Perry
(released) 
OT Mark Dixon
(released) 
RT Todd Wade
(Texans)

10 

1, 12, 4, 8, 14, 9, 8, 7, 4, 6

 


Rank

Team

2003 Rush YPG Rank

2003 Rush YPG

2003 Rushing TDs

27  Cincinnati Bengals 13 124.2 12

The Bengals have made significant changes on the offensive line, a first time starting quarterback in Carson Palmer, and have the toughest schedule of the top 15 rushing teams from last season. I am jumping off the Bengals bandwagon this season.

Offensive Linemen Signed or Re-signed

Offensive Linemen Lost

# of Games Against Top 15 Defenses

Opponents ranked in the Top 15 Against the Rush in 2003

C Rich Braham (re-signed)
OG Bobby Williams
(Eagles)
OL Victor Leyva 
(re-signed)
OL Larry Moore
(Redskins)

OL Mike Goff (Chargers)
OL Matt O'Dwyer
(Bucs) 
OG Scott Rehberg
(49ers)
OL Alex Sulfsted
(released)

5, 6, 7, 1, 3, 6, 4, 8

 


Rank

Team

2003 Rush YPG Rank