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For years I have had this argument with fellow freaks and some of them will point out the fact that an owner recently won the championship with two studs from one team. The two were Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison. My argument is that he won because he had Priest Holmes, who has been a fantasy god for the past three years.
The supporters of this theory say that you should draft the best player available and if they happen to be on the same team then oh well. My point is very simple. Like the stock market your team must be diversified. Here are three problems that I see with drafting two studs from one team.
Hot Defense
One thing that I have learned in playing fantasy football for over a decade is that no matter how great a player you have, a solid defense will always stop them. This is what happened to the Colts in last years' playoffs and that can happen to your team in your playoffs as well.
Let’s take a look at the last three weeks of last year as an example of how this bit some people in the ass. We will take the Colts offense, one of the most consistent performers of 2003 as our prime example. In Week 16 the Colts faced the Broncos at home in a dome. Denver finished the season as the 6th best defense against the pass and how did the Manning/Harrison combination fair? Manning had his worst fantasy week of the year, 7.8 points and Harrison ended up with 8.5 points. If you had these two on your team then you probably lost and more than likely it was in your fantasy super bowl.
Cold Weather
The playoff wildcard rears its ugly head. No matter what happened during the season, if your stud quarterback and receiver are playing in cold weather then their production goes down at least 20%.
Unlike quarterbacks and receivers, the opposite is generally true for the running backs as they tend to get the ball more often in the cold. There is really no way to draft around it since it could be 10 or 60 in New England during December. I guess you could focus on drafting depth behind your studs but replacing them in the final weeks of the season is not a smart practice.
We will use week 15 as our example here also. The Jets play at home in the snow and what is the result? Santana Moss ends up with 4.4 points and Curtis Martin ends up 22.8 points.
So this might tend to support the theory that drafting a stud quarterback and running back from the same team is okay...not. A team’s offensive game plan is either going to be pass oriented or run oriented. In this case you have taken one of your studs out of the game.
Automatic Loss
If you draft two studs from one team then you are basically giving up a regular season loss. Replacing a Manning and Harrison with two backups that will perform even close to their level is impossible. So when they have their bye week you have basically conceded a win to the other team. It is much easier to replace one of them with someone who might put up decent numbers than to replace both of them. That might be fine with you but I know my ultimate goal is to win every regular season game and the Fantasy Super Bowl.
The argument against drafting two studs from one team is very solid and generally will keep you from running into any pitfalls in the playoffs. Remember, diversify your studs and your team gives you the best chance to win a championship.
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