|
The 2004 season
is over so it is time to start looking at 2005 and beyond. For those of
you who play in keeper leagues, I will have a series of articles that
are geared towards analyzing players who should be kept for next season and
future years. Just to level-set everyone; I look for my starting quarterback
to average 220 yards and 2 touchdowns a week. If I can get that on a
week-in-and-week-out basis then I consider my quarterback productive.
|
 |
5. Chad Pennington – New York Jets
(13
games, 2,673 yards and 16 touchdowns) |
Analysis – When healthy Pennington is one of the most accurate passers in the NFL and
now he has an offensive coordinator who won’t be afraid to throw the
ball early and often. Pennington didn’t look great at times last year
but a shoulder injury really limited his effectiveness. Offensive
coordinator Mike Heimerdinger has a track record with quarterbacks, his
last signal caller
Steve McNair was the MVP in 2003. His receivers Santana Moss and Justin McCareins have really good hands. He
just needs a better tight end but that
won’t limit is effectiveness.
2005 Prediction – Pennington will become what everyone thought he would
be in 2004. The Jets will be a much better offensive team next season and Pennington
will be the main benefactor. I think that he will have a career year, 3,700
yards and 27 touchdowns is what I expect but he has the ability to
surpass that.
Beyond 2005 – In three years Pennington will be a top-five fantasy
quarterback.
|
 |
4. Carson Palmer - Cincinnati Bengals
(14 games, 2,897 yards and 18
touchdowns) |
Analysis – Many insiders questioned why Marvin Lewis named Palmer, a
former number one pick from USC, the starter before training camp. After
all, Jon Kitna had just come off a career year and the buzz was back in
Bengalville. Early in the season, the critics looked like they were
correct. He had only seven touchdowns in his first ten games but he finished the
season strong with eleven touchdowns in his last four games. That was
impressive but what put me over the top about him was how he played
against the Steelers (165 yards - 2 touchdowns), Ravens (383 yards – 3
touchdowns) and Patriots (202 yards – 2 touchdowns), three of the
toughest defenses in the league. Oh yeah, did I mention that the games
against the Ravens and Patriots were on the road?
2005 Prediction – Palmer will be this year’s version of Drew Brees. Brees found a great receiver
this year in Antonio Gates and Palmer has the same
type of dependable pass catcher in Chad Johnson. He will also get
back Peter Warrick, (833
yards and 7 touchdowns in 2003) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh showed that
he could be a solid number three receiver. You might think I’m crazy, but
I truly believe that he will have 3,500 passing yards and 30 touchdowns
next year.
Beyond 2005 – Palmer is the next great pocket passer. By 2007 he should
be a top five-fantasy quarterback.
|
 |
3. Matt Hasselbeck – Seattle Seahawks
(14 games, 3,382 yards and 22
touchdowns) |
Analysis – Everyone had Hasselbeck as a sleeper last year but in the
long run he was a disappointment. The one thing that you need to realize
is that he had a tale of two seasons. He struggled coming out of the
gate but when Jerry Rice arrived, everything changed. Darrell Jackson
started to hold onto the ball and Rice gave Hasselbeck another option
in the red zone. He has the arm strength to throw the deep ball and
Bobby Engram should be back as his possession receiver. Koren Robinson
will be gone but I expect the Seahawks to go after another starter in
free agency.
2005 Prediction – Hasselbeck will probably end up being the 6th or 7th
best quarterback but that will be a huge improvement over 2004.
Remember, Hasselbeck set a career high in passing yards (3,841) and
touchdowns (26) in 2003. He finished this past season strong with 1,236 yards and
11 touchdowns over the last four games. Hasselbeck should throw for
about 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns next year.
Beyond 2005 – Next year will be Hasselbeck’s 7th as a pro but he was a
backup for the first couple of years. So in football years he is still
very young. I think his 2003 numbers are just the tip of the iceberg.
|
 |
2. Peyton Manning – Indianapolis Colts
(15 games, 4,487 yards and 49
touchdowns) |
Analysis – Everyone knows that Peyton wasn’t able to get by the
Patriots, again, last year but he was still the best fantasy quarterback
in the game. The Colts have re-signed Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne
so he will have all of his receivers back. Marcus Pollard is due a boatload
of money so he probably won’t be back but Dallas Clark is solid. Manning
threw for at least two touchdowns in 14-of-15 games but the numbers that
make him a fantasy god were the three games with five touchdowns and the one
game with six. The one thing that bothered me was that he didn’t finish
the regular season strong but I think that was because he was done chasing
Dan Marino’s record.
2005 Prediction – Don’t expect Peyton to throw for 49 touchdowns again
but you should expect 4,000 yards and 44 touchdowns. Most people think
that he will be the most valuable fantasy quarterback but not me. The
guy ranked as my number one fantasy keeper will be more productive but
Manning will still be very, very, very good.
Beyond 2005 – Next year will be Manning’s 8th year in the league. Once a
quarterback gets to 10, their performance starts to decline. What does
this mean? Keep him for 2006 but you might want to think about trading
him before the 2007 season. His value will still be high.
|
 |
1. Daunte Culpepper – Minnesota Vikings
(14 games, 4,718 yards and 39
touchdowns) |
Analysis – Culpepper had a great season last year but what impresses me
is that he has gotten better each and every year. He has the best
receiver in the game, (when he wants to play) but I have two reasons why
I’m ranking him number one.
(1) Emergence of Nate Burelson, 1,006 yards
- 9 touchdowns and Jermaine Wiggins, 705 yard – 4 touchdowns and
(2) his
ability to run the ball, 406 yards and 2 touchdowns. A quarterback needs
to the ability to throw and the run the ball in today’s NFL. Culpepper
does both very well. The one other factor that makes him number one is
his defense. They are terrible so the Vikings are often playing from
behind.
2005 Prediction – Culpepper will be the best fantasy quarterback next
year so if you can keep him then you already have a leg up on your
league. He plays in a conference that has some of the worst defenses in
the league and last year he showed that he could play outdoors. I expect
him to have 4,800 passing yards, 450 rushing yards and 45 total
touchdowns.
Beyond 2005 – Next year will be Culpepper’s 7th year in the league so he
will continue to produce for at least the next three years.
So that is it, my top-five keepers for 2005 and beyond. All you Donovan
McNabb fans can start emailing me but he is too inconsistent, 50 points
one week and 9 the next. He is a great talent but his productivity is
like
a yo-yo. One note: I was close to adding Billy Volek but Steve McNair’s
status is still unknown. If McNair retires then Volek will be in the
same class as Palmer and Pennington.
-
The Sandman |
