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The 2004 season is over
so it is time to start looking at 2005 and beyond. For those of you who
play in keeper leagues, I will have a serious of articles that are
geared to analyzing players who should be kept for next year and beyond.
Just to level set everyone; I look for my starting running back to
average 120 total yards and a touchdown. If I can get that on a
week-in-and-week-out basis then I consider my running back productive.
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5. Kevin Jones – Detroit Lions
(16
games, 1,313 yards and 5 touchdowns) |
Analysis – Jones was given the starting job the day he was
drafted but it took awhile before the coaching staff had the confidence
to use him on a consistent basis. When they finally let him loose in week
11, he met my standard for a productive back. Over his last 7 games he
averaged 133 total yards and had 4 of his 5 touchdowns.
2005 Prediction – Jones still needs
to work on certain aspects of his game. He has the skills to be an elite
running back but he needs a better quarterback to take some of the
pressure off of him. I think he will have 1,600 yards and at least 10
touchdowns next year.
Beyond 2005 – If the Lions develop a
solid passing game Jones could be the next Emmitt Smith. If they
don’t then he will become the next Barry Sanders, lots of yards but a
limited number of touchdowns.
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4. Julius Jones - Dallas Cowboys
(8 games, 928 yards and 7
touchdowns) |
Analysis – Jones plays for a hall-of-fame coach who loves
to run the ball. That makes him a keeper in my book. Jones’ overall
numbers don’t look that great but you have to remember that he didn’t
play in 8 games. He had a DNP in week one and he missed six weeks with a
shoulder injury. Upon his return, he was great (81, 150, 198, 88, 80, 57
and 149 yards rushing). He is clearly the player Bill Parcells
thought he could be and when Parcells has a horse like this he will ride
him.
2005 Prediction – Jones' development
will continue and Parcells will force him to learn the blitz pickup. This
will get him on the field more often and should allow for additional
yards via the pass. Jones should easily get 1,500 yards and 12
touchdowns next year.
Beyond 2005 – Jones will be next
Curtis Martin, another running back who benefited from coach Parcells
tutelage
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3. Shaun Alexander – Seattle Seahawks
(16 games, 1,864 yards and 20
touchdowns) |
Analysis – Alexander was the No.1 fantasy back in 2004. For that reason alone he is an automatic keeper. When you take a look at
his career you will see a very solid and consistent running back. He has
averaged 4.4 yards per carry over his five-year career but he has never
had a year that he has averaged more than 4.9. The thing I like
about him is that he has played in every game since he was drafted 5
years ago. In an age when there a specialty backs, Alexander plays on
all downs, in all situations. At 225 pounds he is a power back who has no
problem carrying the ball 300+ times.
2005 Prediction – Alexander will be
Alexander. When you look back on the season you should see 1,625 yards
and 15+ touchdowns. The only concern I have is that he might end up on
another team. He is going to be a free agent and switching teams is
always a risk for any running back (see Clinton Portis).
Beyond 2005 – Alexander is still
relatively young, 27, but it is rare that a running back's career goes
10+ years. I don’t expect him to be the No.1 overall back again but he
should be solid for another three or four years.
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2.
Willis McGahee – Buffalo Bills
(16 games, 1,297 yards and 13
touchdowns) |
Analysis – McGahee’s year was so good that it’s hard to
believe he didn’t become a starter until week 6. Once he was named the
starter he showed why he was a No.1 pick in 2003. He started 12 games
and had 7 100-yard rushing games. If you take out the first fours weeks
and multiply his numbers so that they equal a full season, you get
1,500+ yards and 16 touchdowns. That would have ranked him 4th last
year. He needs to work on his blitz pickup so that he can remain on the
field on 3rd down but that will come with time.
2005 Prediction – McGahee should be
a top-five running back next year. He will be the perfect back for those
owners who grab a quarterback or wide receiver in the first round. I
expect 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns but that could be on the
conservative side.
Beyond 2005 – McGahee will be a
fantasy stud within the next two years.
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1. LaDanian Tomlinson – San Diego
Chargers
(15 games, 1,776 yards and 18
touchdowns) |
Analysis – It is amazing what a quarterback can do to a
team's overall offense. The development of Drew Brees forced teams play
the pass and this helped the running game. What I love about Tomlinson
is his consistency. He had 100-yard games in 10 of the 15 games he
played in. For most of the five other games, he only played a half since
he was nursing a hamstring injury and the Chargers had big leads. The
bonus you get with Tomlinson is his receiving yards, 4th amongst running
backs with 441 yards. One more thing, the Chargers play in the AFC West. This division had 2 of the 3 worst defenses in the NFL last year.
2005 Prediction – This is the year
that Tomlinson becomes the No.1 overall fantasy back. He has flirted
will this ranking in the past but the Chargers are on the rise and Tomlinson
will be the main beneficiary. Don’t be surprised if he has 2,000
combined yards and 20 touchdowns.
Beyond 2005 – Tomlinson has only
played for four years. Since he is so flexible, he should continue to be
a top-three fantasy back for the next five years.
So that is it, my top-five running back
keepers for 2005 and beyond. All of you Priest Holmes fans can start
emailing me, but the knee injuries put up a huge red flag to me and he has two in
the last three years.
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The Sandman |
