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Oakland Raiders – Tyrone Wheatley vs. Justin Fargus vs. Troy Hambrick
vs. Amos Zereoue |
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Analysis - Lots of
things can happen between now and the start of the season but Tyrone
Wheatley is currently on top of the depth chart and I expect him to stay
there.
Traditionally Coach Norv
Turner’s running backs have been big durable type runners. Think
Stephan Davis, Emmitt Smith and Ricky Williams. All of these
running backs excelled under Turner.
Fargas has some potential
to see the field in passing situations and on some third and long but he
is not a Turner type of workhorse running back. As for Hambrick and
Zereoue, they have each shown flashes but they are not a danger to crack
the starting lineup barring injury.
Prediction - Wheatley should be drafted as a number three running
back and Fargas as a fourth. Hambrick and Zereoue are not worth owning.
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Cleveland Browns - Lee Suggs vs. William Green |
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Analysis - It looks
like Suggs is the front runner at this point. Suggs posted over 180
yards rushing in the last game of the year at Cincinnati. It will be
tough for Coach Davis to get that image out of his head.
Prediction - Green appears to have left his personal troubles
behind him but Suggs is the back that should be selected first on draft
day and see the bulk of the carries.
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Dallas Cowboys - Eddie George vs. Julius Jones |
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Analysis - Jones
has all of the skills required but Eddie will be the starter. George has
not missed a game because of injury in his career and this is something
that Bill Parcels will not overlook. By the end of the season I
think that Jones and George will have similar numbers but that just
means you will have half a running back.
Prediction - I would not draft either of these running backs
higher than a number three for your team. George will be useful to
have the first couple weeks but then I think that we will start seeing
more and more of Jones.
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Pittsburgh - Duce Staley vs. Jerome Bettis |
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Analysis
- Duce Staley was signed in Pittsburg because Bettis and Amos Zereoue
were unable to provide the Steelers with a consistent effort last year.
Zereoue is gone (Oakland) and Bettis will be the backup.
Staley is a great number
three running back and will be a good number two if he gets the goal
line carries. My fear is that Staley will get all of the yards and
Bettis will get the touchdowns.
Prediction - Staley is worth drafting as a number three back but
Bettis is only worth a spot on a roster in touchdown only leagues.
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Philadelphia Eagles - Brian Westbrook vs. Correll Buckhalter |
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Analysis - My
thinking is that Westbrook will get all of the carries and Buckhalter
will be the backup. The problem is that I cannot say this with any
certainty.
I can envision scenarios
where Buckhalter comes into the game for a series of downs, performs
well and Westbrook remains on the bench for the rest of the game.
Prediction - Westbrook will be a good number three running back
but he will disappear some weeks and Buckhalter should only be drafted
as a fifth running back unless Westbrook gets injured or the Eagles
announce that he is the starter.
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Buffalo - Travis Henry vs. Willis McGahee |
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Analysis
- Henry has been terrific the last couple of years posting over 1700
yards combined and 14 touchdowns in 2002 and over 1500 yards combined
and 11 touchdowns last year.
Unless the Bills lose
their mind Henry will still be the starter but the Bills will want to
make sure that their 2002 first round pick will get on the field this
year.
Prediction - This is not so much a training camp battle as it is
a required handcuff alert, but if you draft Henry you MUST draft
McGahee.
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Detroit - Kevin Jones vs. Olandis Gary vs. Shaun Bryson
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Analysis - The
whole world is expecting Kevin Jones to be the starter in Detroit this
year. The only reason I have the Lions running backs on this list is
because of Coach Steve Mariucci. Mariucci is the coach who thought
that it was a good idea to give Garrison Hearst a series and the give
Kevan Barlow a series when he was coach of the 49ers. This theory worked
out great for his football team, but terrible for fantasy owners.
Prediction - I would draft Jones as a number three running back
and hope Gary and Bryson don't hurt his production too much. Gary and
Bryson aren't worth owning.
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Tampa Bay - Charlie Garner vs. Michael Pittman vs. Mike Alstott
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Analysis
- Coach John Gruden brought over Charlie Garner from his former team the
Oakland Raiders so Garner already knows the offense. Pittman is
suspended for the first three games of this year because he tried to run
over his wife and kids. Mike Alstott missed the final 12 games of
last season after injuring his neck.
Alstott took part in his
first full contact drill on Monday August 2nd so he appears to be
healthy. With Pittman out the first three weeks I expect Garner to get
the ball 20 times with Alstott carrying it about 10. This is only
going to get worse once Pittman comes back week 4.
Prediction - I would avoid this situation if at all possible but
if you need to take one of these guys as a fourth or fifth back I would
draft them in this order; Garner, Pittman and then Alstott.
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Denver Broncos - Garrison Hearst vs. Quinton Griffin vs. Mike Anderson
vs. Tatum Bell |
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Analysis
- This is a tempting situation for all fantasy owners because if you
guess right you will have a 1200 yard rusher. If you guess wrong
you will waste a spot on your roster waiting for the starter to get
injured.
I don't think that Hearst
was brought in to be the everyday running back. He will get a
handful of carries and provide insurance. Griffin looks like he will be
the starter and should get most of the carries as long as he performs
well. The problem with Griffin is that he doesn’t even weigh 200
lbs. How long will he hold up? Tatum Bell was next in line
but he broke his finger and will miss the first few weeks of camp.
Anderson is being talked about but I doubt that he will be the starter
unless everyone else gets hurt or performs terribly.
Prediction - Whoever is the starter is a good number two back, I
just can't guarantee who it will be. My best guess as of today is
Griffin, then Bell, then Hearst and then Anderson.
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Miami Dolphins - Travis Minor vs. Sammy Morris |
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Analysis
- Minor is 5'10", weighs 200 lbs. and has a career average of 4.5 yards
per carry. The problem is that he has a total of 144 carries in his
three year career. Will he still average 4.5 yards per carry when he has
144 carries after 6 games? I don't think so. Sammy Morris is
more of a full back or blocking back and I don't think he is the answer
either.
Prediction - My guess is Miami will bring in someone else before
the start of the season. I recommend avoiding this whole
situation.
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Atlanta Falcons - Warrick Dunn vs. T.J. Duckett |
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Analysis
- These two have been the poster children for committee running backs.
They are both going to get at least 10 carries each game and depending
on how they are performing depends on who will get the most carries.
Both of these backs are productive fantasy players but I think that
Duckett is ready to assume control of this job. He already gets
the ball in the red zone (11 touchdowns last year) and his 2003 season
yards per carry average was 4.0. Dunn will be used in third and long
situations but that's about it.
Prediction - Duckett should be drafted as a number three and Dunn
as a number four. The best scenario would be that if you draft one of
these backs you try to grab the other.
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